The Energy Transitions Commission Secretariat warns crisis-driven responses that reinforce fossil fuel dependence risk locking economies into higher costs and long-term vulnerability. Accelerating clean energy deployment can displace the equivalent of all Hormuz flows over the next few years and is the most durable route to economic resilience and energy security.
KEY FINDINGS
- Fossil fuel systems transmit shocks; clean energy systems absorb them. Fossil systems depend on continuous commodity flows through concentrated chokepoints and transmit disruptions instantly through global prices. In contrast, 70–90% of clean energy costs are upfront capital. Once built, solar, wind, batteries and grids deliver energy for years, regardless of market disruption.
- If sustained, elevated fossil fuel prices could add $1-2trn in annual gross oil and gas expenditure. That is comparable to the annual clean energy investment gap of $1.5trn, between current investment levels of $2trn and the $3.5trn needed to build a net zero and more resilient energy system all the way through to 2050.
- New fossil infrastructure now would lock in the next shock. New oil and gas fields typically take 5–10 years to reach production. Rooftop solar and heat pumps can scale within months. EVs are already structurally reducing oil demand. EV deployment alone could displace around 5 mb/d by 2030 and 9–10 mb/d by 2035, equivalent to roughly half of pre-crisis Hormuz oil flows. On top of already surging clean technology demand, a coordinated clean energy response could displace 20% of global oil and over 30% of global gas demand by 2035, permanently reducing exposure to future shocks.
